Is Manitoba’s wild weather a sign of climate change?

Inside a 12 months, Manitoba had considered one of its worst floods on file, from experiencing one of many driest summers in a long time.

“Anybody who’s ever lived within the Prairies for any time period is aware of we’ve a number of emissions, nevertheless it’s fairly loopy,” stated Danny Blair, co-director of the Prairie Local weather Heart and a climatologist on the College of Winnipeg.

A number of local weather specialists informed the CBC that whereas they can not definitively say that current climate occasions are a results of human-caused local weather change, they do agree that it could possibly be an indication of issues to come back, and reminds folks that they must be ready for extra. excessive climate sooner or later.

Final summer season, Manitoba set the file for the driest July since 1873; It was the forty second driest summer season in 146 years of data. The winter of 2020-21 was the fifth driest on file.

Quick ahead to the spring of 2022, and whereas March this 12 months was drier than standard, April was the second wettest month in 151 years, with 4 instances the traditional quantity of precipitation.

A Manitoba crop exhibits the consequences of an absence of rain in July 2021. (Tyson Koschik/CBC)

“Does this imply that local weather change is right here in a very massive approach this 12 months?” Blair informed CBC: on top of things It’ll host Marjorie Dowhos earlier this week.

“No, it does not work that approach, nevertheless it’s symptomatic. It is a sign of what we should always anticipate and put together for extra usually sooner or later.”

The chilly, moist winter and spring that the Manitoban individuals expertise additionally had an impact of La Niña — a climate sample that occurs each three to 5 years, Blair stated. Blair stated La Niña years are sometimes related to chilly and moist winters and comes, adopted by sizzling, dry summers.

“This generally is a blessing as a result of we’d like issues to dry for our farmers, our basements and our communities, so we might even see one other slipper within the air within the coming weeks,” he stated.

Blair stated variability is a standard a part of the Prairie local weather, however fluctuations can grow to be much more dramatic.

“We’d like to verify we’re ready for extra extreme fluctuations in climate circumstances within the coming years,” he stated.

“And that features our communities which might be usually flooded. Flooding is not going away with local weather change—it might even worsen.”

Whereas it is troublesome to straight hyperlink Manitoba’s current climate to local weather change, Blair stated Manitoban individuals want to organize to be extra resilient to excessive climate occasions, akin to investing in infrastructure in opposition to floods and droughts and lowering fossil gasoline consumption.

Nathan Gillett, a researcher at Surroundings and Local weather Change Canada, stated Manitoba’s current climate can’t be straight linked to human-caused local weather change – as a result of not sufficient research have been carried out with the obtainable knowledge – however it’s in line with the warming developments seen. worldwide.

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